RethinkX, the organization that reformulated the energy problem a few times already, published an even more radical vision on the future. After the era of fossil fuels, so they hold, will come an era of ‘SWB (= solar, wind and batteries) Superpower’. An era in which mankind will produce much more energy than it does now, at very low marginal costs. An end to the era of energy shortages. As they say themselves: we are heading towards ‘a system in which a critical mass of solar power, wind power, and battery energy storage assets enables society to become energetically self-sustaining via clean energy superabundance.’
RethinkX proposes the advent of clean energy superabundance. In two articles, we will investigate this claim. The second article appeared on May 27, 2025.
A radical departure
In these words, Tony Seba, James Arbib and Adam Dorr formulate a radical departure from conventional thinking. The mere concept of energy superabundance is new, after many years in which energy was the limiting factor to society. Let’s follow their reasoning.
They argue that once the new energy system ‘passes the ignition point, it enters a stable state of radiance in which clean energy is available in such abundance that we not only meet today’s needs without causing damage but actively heal and restore past harms to people and the planet.’ A radical departure from the past indeed. ‘The new energy system that emerges will require entirely new mindsets to understand, new metrics to evaluate, new business models and strategies to utilize, and new institutions, policies, and rules to govern.’ They compare the present energy situation with a ‘global race-to-the-stars’, often won by outsiders rather than incumbents. ‘The full magnitude of the energy disruption by solar power, wind power, and batteries is still not widely understood…. (But) now, thanks to SWB, the age-old goal of clean energy superabundance is finally within reach.’
Peace and prosperity
These are very large shoes to fill. The authors even propose that clean energy superabundance will bring along ‘peace, prosperity, productivity, and resilience at levels that have simply seemed unimaginable up until now.’ Well, well. Still, they have strong arguments.
Up to now, the authors argue, we have had to minimize rather than maximize energy use. Energy flows were based on energy carriers – derived from dirty fossil fuels. In the future, our energy position will be based on stocks rather than flows. On that basis, we can utilize far more energy. ‘Any home or business that installs rooftop solar and battery capacity sufficient to meet its inelastic energy demand through the most difficult time of year, will naturally produce SWB superpower throughout the rest of the year.’ Compare that to the internet, that reduced the cost of information to such an extent that it became negligible. Consequently, our questions will shift. SWB superpower will enable us to ignore the question of if and tackle questions of who, what, where, when, why, and how.
We will have to rethink our assumptions, so the authors argue. These new energy systems have two properties that create the conditions for clean energy superabundance.
1. Energy systems based on SWB are sized for the most challenging season (typically, the cloudiest several weeks of winter); therefore they produce a superabundance of clean electricity throughout the rest of the year.
2. Solar, wind, and battery technologies all operate at near-zero marginal cost.
No oversizing
There is no reason why we shouldn’t oversize SWB systems. Oversizing will largely nullify the intermittent property of the system. Any oversizing will reduce the amount of battery storage required for the winter period. A period that we can even shorten thanks to our good weather forecasting system. The point where we place those batteries can be chosen at will: either co-located with generating equipment, or serving the grid at large, or decentralized near the point of end use. In other words, any system that adds battery capacity to meet demand through the most difficult time of the year, will help produce clean energy superabundance throughout the rest of the year.
On top of that, return on investment, as a function of generating capacity installed, appears to be non-linear. This is because more generating capacity reduces the need for energy storage. In most regions, the authors write, if enough generating capacity has been installed, the necessary battery capacity is less than 100 average demand hours’ worth of energy storage. Moreover, an additional 20% in capital investment will also have non-linear effects: it will double or even triple the output of the system. A full-blown system will have ‘many times more generating capacity than today’s grids.’
Further reduction
The authors write that even this modest battery storage capacity can be reduced further by classical means. For instance by planning to reduce energy demand in anticipation of particularly challenging hours; by supplementation of the energy storage capacity with electric vehicles (where they act as ‘virtual power plants’); by specialized energy storage (pumped hydro, thermal batteries, synthesized fuels like hydrogen and syngas); and by conventional emergency reserve capacity, such as existing gas peaker plants. In short, they do not foresee any disturbance of uninterrupted electricity delivery, if only planned ahead.
But there is yet another lesson to be learned in the new energy system. The key to realizing maximum value from SWB will be to identify pairs, triplets, or even quadruplets of use cases that complement one another. An example. Large computing clusters will clearly benefit from clean, cheap electricity. They produce low-temperature heat. A fine input for other industrial applications like precision fermentation. These two industries could offer a promising pairing. And maybe there are many other such combinations, awaiting discovery.
A swift transformation
The transformation that we will witness, will be swift. According to RethinkX, it will take us through the ‘30s and be finished by 2040. It will bring us ‘fundamental differences’.
- Once the new system based on SWB reaches critical mass, it no longer requires significant ongoing inflows of fuel to generate energy.
- By 2030, SWB competitiveness will grow into an overwhelming advantage that makes these energy technologies the clear economic choice in virtually every inhabited region of the planet.
- With solar and wind power, deployment and scaling only drives their costs lower, which in turn opens up further deployment and scaling opportunities. Superabundance necessitates a wholly different mindset than scarcity.
- Solar and wind power are clean and safe, not dirty and dangerous. They simply do not pose the same risks as conventional technologies.
- Solar photovoltaic panels and lithium-ion batteries can be installed anywhere at any scale, unlike other energy technologies.
- Solar and wind power are resilient, not fragile. They are viable at any scale, and their lack of moving parts means that their electricity output can be ramped far faster than any conventional power plant.
- Solar and wind power are democratizing, not divisive. They will slash barriers to access, and remove centralized control over production and consumption of energy.
- The conventional wisdom of energy conservation makes no sense and is instead counterproductive in the new context of clean energy superabundance.
In short, there are fundamental differences between existing and future energy systems. In the next article, we will elaborate this point.
Interesting? Then also read:
Green energy transition will be cheap
Renewable energy system costs – the untold story
A transition that makes use of existing energy infrastructure