The era of SWB superpower

SWB superpower (= solar, wind and batteries) will make an end to the era of energy shortages. We will enter into an era in which mankind will produce much more energy than it does now, at very low marginal costs. This will open up major possibilities. According to RethinkX in their latest report.

RethinkX proposes the advent of clean energy superabundance. In two articles, we will investigate this claim. The first article appeared on May 25.

SWB superpower will benefit everyone

SWB superpower will deliver answers to the questions of who will generate energy, what, where, when, why, and how. SWB superpower will be abundant clean electricity, produced by systems whose marginal cost is near-zero. Therefore, according to RethinkX, everyone will utilize this. It will benefit everyone; for the same reasons that the convergence of digital technologies in the 1990s created information and telecommunications superabundance via the Internet. Marginal costs will fall to near-zero. And everyone will be able to produce this power.

Today, RethinkX holds, SWB has become overwhelmingly economically competitive with fossil fuels and nuclear power; no additional breakthroughs are required. In systems optimized for SWB superpower, electricity will be far less expensive than fuels; making the electrification of heating and transportation the only rational economic choice.

A large surplus of generating capacity

Solar, wind and batteries have a non-intuitive consequence. The lowest-cost system has many times more generating capacity than today’s grids. ‘This is because the large surplus of generating capacity drastically reduces the amount of accompanying energy storage capacity that is required.’  This is a non-intuitive result. Returns on investment on extra capacity are nonlinear; because highest energy use takes place during just a few hours per year. An additional 20% in total capital investment, for example, can double or even triple SWB superpower output.

Therefore, ‘systems should be designed to maximize SWB superpower returns on investment.’ Additional energy producing systems would have a large impact. Like:
– Planning to reduce electricity demand in anticipation of particularly challenging hours
– Electricity imports from neighbouring regions
– Supplementation of energy storage capacity with electric vehicles
– Pre-existing or specialized energy storage (pumped hydro, thermal batteries, synthesized fuels like hydrogen and syngas)
– Conventional emergency reserve capacity (e.g. from existing gas peaker plants or diesel generators).

Superabundance

The concept of superabundance is essential. A good or service ‘becomes superabundant when marginal cost is near-zero and supply overwhelmingly exceeds inelastic demand much or all of the time.’ A superabundant good or service isn’t free of cost. But its price is ‘too low to support traditional market transactions.’ Clean energy superabundance is a ‘holy grail’ of technology. It will liberate us in the purest sense, it will solve most of our problems. It will bring about prosperity, freedom, poverty reduction, access and opportunity, health and security. Deploying SWB ‘must therefore become one of the top priorities for every community, region, and nation across the globe.’ It will ‘safeguard against catastrophe in all its forms – social, economic, geopolitical, environmental. Energy superabundance will bring about a completely different mindset.

The transition towards the new system will be swift. It will, according to the authors, be almost complete by the end of the 2040s. We will see the following fundamental differences.

1. Stocks, not flows will dominate the energy system. Once the stock of solar and wind generating assets is built, those installations can produce power at extremely low marginal cost for decades.
2. Energy will be cheap, not expensive.
3. Energy will be superabundant, not scarce. Superabundance necessitates a wholly different mindset than scarcity.
4. Energy will be clean and safe, not dirty and dangerous.
5. Energy will be distributed, not centralized. Solar photovoltaic panels and lithium-ion batteries can be installed anywhere at any scale, unlike other energy technologies.
6. The system will be resilient, not fragile.
7. The system will be democratising, not divisive.
8. In the age of superabundance, we will maximize instead of minimize energy use.

The consequence of falling prices

It may be important to stress that alle these items are the consequence of falling prices for sustainable energy production. A characteristic that is true for each component of the system: solar and wind energy and batteries. And even true for a system that carries the lowest risks of all energy systems.

And all this for a very simple system.

1. No imports of energy. Locally produced.
2. No conventional coverage
3. No other zero-carbon energy technologies (e.g. nuclear)
4. No subsidies, taxes or financial support

And all the benefits are because:

1. Marginal costs next to zero
2. Everyone will use it
3. Everyone will produce it
4. Electricity prices very low, everywhere
5. Cheaper than the alternatives

We will enter into a new era. Beware!

Interesting? Then also read:
Europe and the energy transition
Scale issues in the energy transition
From energy transition to precision economy