The article in BioScience, The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth, is particularly distressing. ‘We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster,’ is the first sentence. ‘This is a global emergency beyond any doubt.’ Testified to by the rest of the article, signed by fourteen scientists, headed by William J. Ripple and Christopher Wolf.
Climate gets worse
We can pose the question: what’s new? For many years already, many scientists have sounded the alarm about dangers of climate change; driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions and ecosystem change. For half a century, global warming has been correctly predicted; even before it was observed. Despite these warnings, we are still moving in the wrong direction. Fossil fuel emissions have increased to an all-time high. The 3 hottest days ever occurred in July of 2024. UNEP predicts that by year 2100, peak warming will be 2.7°C above average.
The authors comment: ‘we can now only hope to limit the extent of the damage.’ We are witnessing the grim reality of the forecasts, as climate disaster comes near. They bring forth unprecedented disasters around the world, and human and nonhuman suffering. ‘We have now brought the planet into climatic conditions never witnessed by us or our prehistoric relatives within our genus, Homo.’
Climate disaster
There are many phenomena that testify to this climate disaster. The article mentions:
- Last year, we witnessed record-breaking sea surface temperatures
- Also, the hottest Northern Hemisphere extratropical summer in 2000 years
- The breaking of many other climate records.
Moreover, we will see much more extreme weather in the coming years, as a result of human-caused carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases. Global fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes account for approximately 90% of these emissions; land-use change, primarily deforestation, accounts for the remaining 10%.
In 2023, various historical temperature and ice extent records were broken by major margins. Both global and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures were far above their 1991–2024 averages for much of the year – a pattern that has continued well into 2024. We may regularly surpass current temperature records in future years. Of the 35 planetary vital signs we track annually (like population, number of livestock, energy consumption and CO2 emissions), 25 are at record levels. In 2024, there were at least 16 recorded climate disasters. How can we then decouple this growth from greenhouse gas emissions?
Fuel consumption remains high
Fossil fuel consumption rose by 1.5% in 2023 relative to 2022, mostly because of substantial increases in coal (1.6%) and oil consumption (2.5%). Renewable energy use also grew in 2023, by 15%. However, fossil fuel consumption remains roughly 14 times greater than solar and wind energy consumption; recent growth in the renewable share of electricity generation mostly covered increased demand, instead of replacing fossil fuels.
Global tree cover loss rose from 22.8 megahectares (Mha) per year in 2022 to 28.3 Mha per year in 2023. Loss of forest carbon sequestration leads to additional warming, which can drive further losses in carbon sequestration and so on. On a more positive note, the deforestation rate in the Brazilian Amazon continued to decline, dropping from 1.16 Mha in 2022 to 0.90 Mha in 2023.
Emissions still on the rise
Annual energy-related emissions increased 2.1% in 2023. The top three emitting countries are China, the United States, and India, which together account for over half of global emissions. On the basis of global year-to-date averages, the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane are at record highs. Carbon dioxide levels were recently observed to be surging, leading to climate disaster. Furthermore, the growth rate of methane emissions has been accelerating, very troubling. That other greenhouse gas, nitrous oxide, is also at a record high.
Ocean acidity and ocean heat content are both at record extremes. This already caused marine animal mass mortality events. In addition, the average global sea level is presently at a record high, mostly because of both overall warming and a strong El Niño in 2023 and part of 2024. Melting continental ice contributes about half to sea level rise. Greenland’s ice mass, Antarctica’s ice mass, and the average glacier thickness are all at record lows.
Extreme weather events
Climate disaster is contributing greatly to human suffering. Increasing heat and rainfall extremes are now far outside the historical climate. Numerous major climate-related disasters have occurred, including a series of heat waves across Asia; these killed more than a thousand people and led to temperatures reaching 50°C in some parts of India. Because the Earth system is strongly nonlinear, extreme weather and disaster rates can increase dramatically in response to global warming.
Climate change has other negative effects: coral bleaching, toxic orange rivers, climate change as a social justice issue, climate feedback loops and tipping points, and the risk of societal collapse. Coral reefs benefit millions of people by providing a wide range of ecosystem services, including coastal protection, improved water quality, fisheries, and tourism opportunities; they also provide habitat for many species. Climate change is a particularly serious threat to them. Corals are very vulnerable to sea temperature rise. As of 2024, extraordinarily warm ocean temperatures are driving a major global-scale coral bleaching event; the fourth ever recorded (previous events: 1998, 2010, 2014–2017).
Feedback loops
Awareness and research need to increase on climate feedback loops. Feedback loops are processes that can either amplify or reduce the effects of greenhouse gas emissions. Many significant feedback loops enhance warming. At least 28 amplifying feedback loops have been identified. A particularly concerning feedback loop is the permafrost feedback loop, which involves rising temperatures causing permafrost thawing. This process releases more carbon dioxide and methane, leading to further warming. Because feedback loops are not yet fully integrated into climate models, current emissions reduction plans might fall short in adequately limiting future warming. Some climate disasters are linked to tipping points. They potentially trigger major and irreversible changes in the Earth system without further pushing by human activities. Five climate elements are likely to cross their tipping points at 1.5°C: the Greenland ice sheet, the West Antarctic ice sheet, boreal permafrost, low-latitude coral reefs, and the Barents Sea Ice.
Climate change is a symptom of a deeper issue: ecological overshoot, where human consumption outpaces the Earth’s ability to regenerate. Overshoot is an inherently unstable state that cannot persist indefinitely. This might even trigger societal collapse. Climate change has already displaced millions of people, and has the potential to displace hundreds of millions or even billions more, leading to greater geopolitical instability.
What’s for us in the future?
Each 0.1°C of global warming places an extra 100 million people (or more) into unprecedented hot average temperatures. Future years are very likely to be even hotter. Even in the most optimistic scenarios, large-scale climate adaptation efforts will be needed, particularly for the most vulnerable populations.
But climate emergency is not an isolated issue. Global heating, although it is catastrophic, is merely one aspect of a climate disaster that includes environmental degradation, rising economic inequality, and biodiversity loss. Climate change is a glaring symptom of a deeper systemic issue: ecological overshoot. This is an inherently unstable state that cannot persist indefinitely. Societal collapse becomes a realistic possibility. For instance because of international conflict. Climate change has already displaced millions of people, and has the potential to displace hundreds of millions or even billions more, leading to greater geopolitical instability.
Conclusions
Despite six IPCC reports, 28 COP meetings, hundreds of other reports, and tens of thousands of scientific papers, the world has made only very minor headway on climate change. In part because of stiff resistance from those benefiting financially from the current fossil-fuel based system. But rapidly phasing down fossil fuel use should be a top priority. This might be accomplished partly through a sufficiently high global carbon price. Also pricing and reducing methane emissions is critical for effectively mitigating climate change. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, and has a relatively short atmospheric lifetime, making reductions impactful in the short term.
In a world with finite resources, unlimited growth is a perilous illusion. The surge in yearly climate disasters shows we are in a major crisis with worse to come if we continue with business as usual. Humanity’s future depends on our creativity, moral fiber, and perseverance.
Interesting? Then also read:
A dangerous new phase in climate change?
Could reforestation stop climate change?
Stepwise changes, a ray of sunshine in the climate debate