Bad climate news is everywhere. Africa is being hit particularly hard by climate change and extreme weather, impacting lives and livelihoods. We are living in a world warming at the fastest rate since records began. Yet, governments have been slow to act.
COP30 about to happen
By the end of this year, the global climate change conference of the parties (COP30) is going to take place. But so far, countries have been very slow to submit climate plans. These had to outline how each country would cut its greenhouse gas emissions in line with the legally binding international Paris Agreement. This commits all signatories to limiting human-caused global warming to no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. But so far, only 25 countries, covering around 20% of global emissions, have submitted their plans. This leaves 172 still to come.
The national plans are important in setting out countries’ short- to medium-term commitments on climate change. They also provide a sense of direction – an intention that outlines further policy decisions and investments. But arguably only one of the submitted plans – the UK’s – is compatible with the Paris Agreement.
The state of the climate system
There is a global science team that publishes the annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report. This report gives an overview of the state of the climate system. It is based on the emissions of greenhouse gases globally. How do these concentrate in the atmosphere? How are temperatures are rising on the ground? How much of this warming has been caused by humans? The report also looks at extreme temperatures and rainfall; at rising sea levels. It considers how much carbon dioxide can still be emitted before the planet’s temperature exceeds 1.5°C more than it was in pre-industrial times. This is important because staying within 1.5°C is needed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
The report shows that human-caused global warming reached 1.36°C in 2024. This boosted average global temperatures (a combination of human-induced warming and natural variability in the climate system) to 1.52°C. In other words, the world has already reached the level where it has warmed so much that it cannot avoid significant impacts from climate change. There is no doubt we are in dangerous waters.
Rising temperatures are rapidly eating into the remaining carbon budget (the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted within an agreed time). This budget will be exhausted in less than three years at current levels of emissions. Continued record high levels of greenhouse gas emissions have led to rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.
We need to act now
The conclusion is inevitable. The window to stay within 1.5°C is essentially shut. We might bring temperatures back down in future; but this will take a lot of time and effort. And we should do this as climate extremes are intensifying. This brings long-term risks and costs to the global economy. And to people. Particularly the African continent is now facing its deadliest climate crisis in over a decade.
Data are essential to the global economy. No economy can operate without fast access to trusted data. Politicians and business leaders have a keen eye on them. None would tolerate outdated intelligence on sales or the stock market. But when it comes to climate, the speed of climate change often outpaces the data available. Therefore, fast decisions can’t be made. Governments have been slow to respond to what key climate indicators – the Earth’s vital signs – are telling us.
Global leaders need to step up
As more countries develop their climate plans, it’s time for leaders across the globe to face the hard truths of climate science. Governments need to have fast access to trusted climate data so that they can develop up-to-date national climate plans. These climate plans need to take a global perspective too – really important for fairness and equity. Particularly, developed countries must acknowledge that they’ve emitted too much greenhouse gases, and take the lead in presenting ambitious mitigation efforts. They also need to provide finance for other countries to decarbonize and adapt.
In Africa, the UN is hosting UNFCCC Climate Week in Addis Ababa in September. Here, there will be sessions on accessing climate finance and ensuring that the transition to zero human-caused carbon emissions by 2050 (net zero) is just and equitable. The summit also aims to support countries that are still working on their national climate plans. Slowing down the pace of emissions is vital not just for the countries – and economies – currently on the frontline against climate change, but for a functioning global society. But so far, just five of the G20 countries have submitted their 2035 plans: Canada, Brazil, Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom. Whereas the G20 is responsible for around 80% of global emissions.
Many countries still need to submit their plans
Just 10 of the updated nationally determined contributions have reaffirmed or strengthened commitments to move away from fossil fuels. Therefore, national climate plans from the European Union, China and India will be key in testing their climate leadership and keeping the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goals alive. Many other countries will scrutinize what these countries commit to before they submit their own national climate plans.
What can we expect in the future? If all would go well, countries will submit ambitious and credible plans well before COP30. This would finally close the gap between acknowledging the climate crisis and making decisive efforts to address it.
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